AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

August 27, 2014

Corn futures closed fractionally mixed. The weekly EIA reports showed stocks of ethanol at 17.3 million barrels.  That is a 5.1% decrease from last week and a 14-week low. Production slipped 2.56% from last week, down to 913 thousand barrels per day.  That was roughly a 96 million bushel weekly burn rate excluding DDG net back. More rain falling across portions of the Corn Belt is keeping pressure on the corn market again today.  Trade estimates for weekly export sales are in the 700,000 to 950,000 MT range, with nearly all of it expected to be new crop since the marketing year ends August 31. These sales totals will be through 8/21.

Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.56, unch,

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.65, unch,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, down 1/4 cent

May 15 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, down 1/4 cent

Soybeans

August 27, 2014

Soybean futures closed 3 to 5 cents lower with the exception of volatile September, which was up 11 1/4 cents with the assistance of a $29 jump in September meal futures. November beans are trading lower on wet weather, but concerns of SDS and white mold problems in parts of IL, IA and MO brought some new ideas of support. It is typically difficult to quantify national yield losses due to those diseases, just as hail losses are hard to show because the total area affected is such a small portion of the land mass. Chinese port stocks of soybeans have reportedly been drawn down after backing up to well over 7 MMT in July. Chinese futures for January 15 are trading just under $20/bushel, with soybean meal at $530/MT. Trade estimates for weekly export sales to be reported by USDA in the morning are in the 700,000 MT to 1.1 MMT range. Old crop bookings are expected to be negative or negligible.

Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $10.85 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents,

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.23 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.31 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.39 1/4, down 3 cents,

Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $416.80, up $28.10,

Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at $32.67, down $0.36

Wheat

August 27, 2014

Wheat futures closed 2 lower to 7 higher, with MPLS the weakest on harvest pressure and KC the strongest. The USDA projection for 14/15 US exports is off 4.72% from last year, but the total commitments as a % of that projection are currently at 43%, a couple points ahead of the five year average for this date.  Last year they were at 48% by now. Trade ideas for the weekly Export Sales report from USDA are in the 200,000 to 500,000 MT range.  In other words, they don’t think much happened last week.

Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.28, up 7 cents,

Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.10 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents

Cattle

August 27, 2014

Cattle futures closed $.35 to $1.25 lower. Feeder cattle futures were 62 higher to $1.00 lower. Wholesale beef prices were lower again, with Choice boxes down $1.07 and Select boxes 88 cents lower.  Cash cattle trade was just about nil today, with a few heifers quoted in CO at $154. Asking prices appear to be $154-155, and $245-248 in the north. With plants dark on Monday and wholesale prices soft, packers have not appeared to be in a hurry. Week to date slaughter at 346,000 head is up from 339,000 last week, but trails the 364,000 through the chutes at the same point in 2013.

Aug 14 Cattle closed at $153.200, down $0.350,

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $147.825, down $0.425,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $150.775, down $0.475,

Aug 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $218.150, up $0.625

Sep 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $214.475, up $0.275

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $212.150, down $0.325

Lean Hogs

August 27, 2014

Hog futures closed $.20 to $1.12 higher. The pork carcass cutout was sharply lower in the pm report, losing $2.98 to $100.18. You can’t trust a morning jump in any of the components. Bellies were higher in the am, but down a whopping $13.94 in the pm version. Week to date FI slaughter at 1.235 million head is 25,000 above last week, but 66,000 below year ago. USDA showed the national carcass base hog average at $91.96, down 97 cents from yesterday. The IA/MN region was quoted $1.26 lower.

Oct 14 Hogs closed at $95.925, up $0.825,

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $90.500, up $0.800

Feb 15 Hogs closed at $89.925, up $1.125

Cotton

August 27, 2014

Cotton futures settled 4 to 60 points higher; with October the weakest this time and the 2015 contracts the strongest. The dollar index was softer today, posting a bearish engulfing line on the September futures chart. Open interest has been declining for both October and December contracts as traders head for the sidelines prior to the 3 day holiday weekend. The Cotlook A index is 0.65 higher at 75.75. Cert stocks have declined to 71,497 bales, with 4,751 decerts.

Oct 14 Cotton closed at 68.3, up 4 points,

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 67.46, up 57 points

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 67.81, up 57 points


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