AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

October 20, 2014

Corn futures closed fractionally higher on the day, coming back from as much as 6 cents lower earlier in the session.  After the closing bell, the USDA published its weekly crop progress report.  The national crop is now approximately 31% harvested, vs. the 5yr average of 53% for this date.  The overall condition was unchanged from last week at 389 on the Brugler500 Index.  Weekly export inspections reported this morning were 717,605 MT, which was smaller than both a week ago and a year ago, however the YTD total is more than 150% of what it was a year ago.  The US dollar index finished the day with a more than 100 point loss.

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.48 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

May 15 Corn closed at $3.70 1/2, up 1/2 cent

Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.78, up 1/2 cent

Soybeans

October 20, 2014

Soybeans finished the day 7.5 cents lower after the November contract traded as much as 15.75 cents lower earlier in the session.  Rain showers in some key Brazilian growing areas brought some pressure, but the forecasts are shifty.  Weakness in Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed futures was also a factor.   In the weekly crop progress report, USDA estimates that the crop is now 53% harvested vs. the 5yr average of 66% for this date.  The crop condition rating on the Brugler500 index was unchanged from last week.  Weekly export inspections reported by the USDA this morning were more than half a million metric tons larger than they were last week, with the actual figure coming in at 1,991,537 MT; that is 18% larger than the same week a year ago.  Total year to date export inspections are 123% of what they were a year ago. 

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.44 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.52 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.60 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents,

May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.69, down 7 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $329.40, down $1.10,

Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at $31.70, down $0.32

Wheat

October 20, 2014

Wheat futures closed mostly steady to a couple cents lower on the day.  For KC wheat, the deferred contracts managed to gain as much as a couple cents today.  Export inspections were 481,878 MT, up 25,911 MT from last week, but 101,138 MT less than the same week a year ago.  Current YTD wheat inspections are only about two thirds of what they were a year ago.  The US winter wheat crop is now estimated to be about 76% planted and the 5 yr average for this date is 77%.  Typically 50% of the crop has emerged by this date, and this year it is 6 points ahead of normal at 56% emerged.  

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.13 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.01, down 3/4 cent,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.66 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents

Cattle

October 20, 2014

Cattle futures closed sharply higher with the October contract posting a new high and a new high-close.  A few contracts were as high as the daily limit would allow before settling a few cents back from their highs for the day.  Feeders were also sharply higher, and both the November and the January contracts were up the limit earlier in the session.  Cash cattle trade for top quality steers last week averaged $167.08 and the futures market is trying to keep up with the cash.  Dressed prices averaged $259.19.  Wholesale beef prices were reported mixed with average prices for Choice beef 24 cents higher, and Select boxes 14 cents lower.  USDA has the national pasture and range condition rating slightly lower than last week, but still in much better shape than a year ago.  Estimated Monday slaughter was about the same as last Monday, but 10K head smaller than a year ago.

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $167.900, up $2.850,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $168.025, up $2.975,

Feb 15 Cattle closed at $166.900, up $2.875,

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $240.750, up $2.300

Nov 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $236.825, up $2.675

Jan 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $231.075, up $2.950

Lean Hogs

October 20, 2014

Hog futures closed sharply lower, but less so in the deferred contracts; May hogs were UNCH on the day.  The CME Index was down 89 cents at $108.21. The average pork carcass cutout value came in sharply lower, down $4.55 from Friday afternoon at $106.46.  Most of the loss can be attributed to the Ham cut, off $17.24/cwt on the day, but bellies contributed to the lower average with a $4.87/cwt loss.   The average carcass base price for the Western Corn Belt was 84 cents lower, with the ECB price down 87 cents, and the IA/MN area off 86 cents.  Estimated Monday slaughter was 429 K head, 2K head larger than last Monday, and 3K head smaller than a year earlier.    

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $89.150, down $1.425,

Feb 15 Hogs closed at $86.400, down $1.150

Apr 15 Hogs closed at $86.975, down $0.525

Cotton

October 20, 2014

Cotton futures ended the day with front month December down 71 points and the March contract 3 points lower.  Beyond that, the deferred contracts notched out gains of a few points today. Crude oil came back to close higher on the day.  The US dollar index lost more than 100 points from Friday.  USDA said in its weekly crop progress report that the national crop is now 29% harvested, when the 5yr average is 31%.  As of Sunday, 86% of the crop has bolls opening, compared to the 5yr average of 90%.  Overall the condition rating of the entire US cotton crop was slightly lower than it was last week.  The USDA AWP for this week (today through Thursday) is 49.83, leaving an LDP of 2.17 cents.  The Cotlook A index is at 70.05, down 15 points.

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 62.29, down 71 points,

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 61.7, down 3 points

May 15 Cotton closed at 62.68, up 5 points

Jul 15 Cotton closed at 63.66, up 16 points


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