AgriCharts Market Commentary

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November 24, 2015

Corn futures are mostly trading between 2 and 3 cents lower at midday, after settling 2 1/2 to 4 cents higher on Monday. Yesterday, Dec15 corn closed 7 1/4 cents off its low, and just 1/4 cent below its daily high, settling at its highest close since 11/6. Corn futures were unfazed by the stronger USD, which was 150 points higher yesterday, reaching its highest point since April 13. The Chicago Board of Trade will have normal operating hours on Wednesday, but will be closed Thursday due to the Thanksgiving Holiday. According to DTN, the national average cash price for corn was $3.47 1/4 as of Monday night, 6 cents higher than it was last year at this time. The national average basis was -$0.20, 11.5 cents stronger than it was on this date in 2014. The IGC states that US corn export prices were $171/ton on Monday, down $19/ton from the same period a year ago, but $1/ton higher from Friday.

Dec 15 Corn is at $3.64 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 16 Corn is at $3.70, down 3 cents,

May 16 Corn is at $3.75 1/2, down 3 cents

Jul 16 Corn is at $3.81 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents


November 24, 2015

Soybean futures are currently trading a couple-three cents higher after closing 5 3/4 to 6 3/4 higher yesterday. Jan16 beans traded as low as $8.44 1/4 yesterday morning, the lowest for a front month contract since March 2, 2009 ($8.43). That was based on ideas that Argentine farmers will sell several million metric tonnes of soybeans that they had been holding off the market. However, Jan16 beans closed 20 cents off their daily low on Monday. DTN data shows that the national average soybean basis was -$0.45 on Monday, more than a dime stronger than it was on 11/10, and 6.5 cents stronger than it was at this time a year ago.  National average cash price is $8.19 1/4. Data from the International Grains Council shows that US soybean export spot prices were equal to those of Argentina, at $347/ton (2014 at this time: US:$424/ton, ARG:$452/ton).

Jan 16 Soybeans are at $8.67, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 16 Soybeans are at $8.69 1/4, up 3 cents,

May 16 Soybeans are at $8.75 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Jul 16 Soybeans are at $8.80 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 15 Soybean Meal is at $283.90, down $1.40,

Dec 15 Soybean Oil is at $28.48, up $0.57


November 24, 2015

Wheat futures are currently down 5 to 8 3/4 cents in the December contracts, with CBT wheat the weakest. The USDA stated in its Crop Progress report after the Monday close that overall the winter wheat crop holds a condition rating of 53% good to excellent, up 1 point from last week. The NE winter wheat crop declined a point from last week, currently at 63% good to excellent, while KS improved a point to 47% good to excellent. The agency reported that 96% of the intended winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday night, with all but 6 states reportedly finished. The five year average shows that plantings are typically finished by now. Emergence is right on pace at 90%. Emergence in KS is one point ahead of the five year average at 97% complete, while OK emergence is a point behind at 93%. The latest export prices according to the IGC show that US HRW at the Gulf is still $23/ton more expensive than French wheat.

Dec 15 CBOT Wheat is at $4.86 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents,

Dec 15 KCBT Wheat is at $4.59 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.09 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents


November 24, 2015

Live cattle futures are trading with triple digit losses in most contracts at midday on a Turnaround Tuesday, after posting gains of $1.70 to $2.475 on Monday. Feeder futures also reported triple digit gains on Monday, but are down 70 to 90 cents here on Tuesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/20 was $2.88 lower to $171.51. The monthly USDA Cold Storage report showed 511.576 million pounds in the cooler on October 31. That was up 2.65% from September and 34.3% larger than last year. The USDA reports higher wholesale beef prices this morning. Choice boxes are up $1.16, while select boxes are $2.07 higher. Overall, cash cattle trade last week averaged $194.62 dressed (-$4.75 from the week before) and $123.33 live (-$1.86). It was inactive on Monday. Estimated FI slaughter yesterday was 112,000 head, up 6,000 head from last year, but 2,000 head smaller than the same Monday last year.

Dec 15 Cattle are at $130.800, down $1.375,

Feb 16 Cattle are at $132.800, down $1.400,

Apr 16 Cattle are at $133.275, down $1.175,

Jan 16 Feeder Cattle are at $164.675, down $0.725

Mar 16 Feeder Cattle are at $162.575, down $0.900

Apr 16 Feeder Cattle are at $164.325, down $0.700

Lean Hogs

November 24, 2015

Hog futures are currently up 27 to 70 cents after settling steady to down 40 cents on Monday. The Dec contract reached $58.35 (+$0.90) earlier in the Monday session, but was not able to keep the gains. It is up 70 cents on the session so far this morning. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/20 was down 15 cents to $55.37. The monthly Cold Storage report showed a decline in pork inventory. Supplies were down 8% from September as disappearance exceeded production. Pork stocks were still up 13% from the PED reduced stocks in 2014. This morning, the USDA reported the average carcass cutout price at $72.31, just a penny higher. Picnics are $5.14 higher, while bellies are down $1.48. The national weighted average cash hog base price is down $1.25 this morning. Estimated Monday slaughter totaled 440,000 head, 2,000 head larger than last Monday, and 4,000 head more than the same day in 2014.

Dec 15 Hogs are at $58.150, up $0.700,

Feb 16 Hogs are at $58.750, up $0.475

Apr 16 Hogs are at $63.425, up $0.275


November 24, 2015

Cotton futures are currently trading mostly 30 to 54 points higher at midday after settling from 12 points higher in Dec15 on Monday, but as much as 123 lower in Mar16. After the Monday close, the weekly Crop Progress report showed that cotton harvest is still 12 points behind the five year average schedule, at 70% complete as of Sunday night (11/22/2014: 76%). Harvest wrapped up in AR and LA last week. The Texas harvest is still 15 points behind at 60% complete. The Cotlook A Index was 69.35, down 25 points from the previous day. ICE reported that there were 59,664 certified bales in delivery warehouses on Nov 23, with 715 new certs and no decertified bales. There were 3,263 bales awaiting review. USDA put the AWP for this week at 46.88 and dropped the LDP/MLG to 5.12 from 5.41 cents last week.

Dec 15 Cotton is at 60.7, up 54 points,

Mar 16 Cotton is at 61.9, up 30 points

May 16 Cotton is at 62.79, up 31 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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