AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

September 12, 2014

Corn futures closed mostly 2 1/2 cents lower, with September futures settling 7 1/4 higher as they expired. Freezing temperatures were seen in various pockets of the upper Midwest but corn is a little more cold tolerant than soybeans. The trade appears to be numb to the idea of significant damage, particularly with much above normal temps in the 8-14 day forecast. A USDA yield estimate of 171.7 bpa yesterday and 2 billion bushel carryout estimate provides some cushion against weather related losses. The USDA cut in estimated Chinese 2014 production is not taking their crop low enough to eat into carryover. i.e. production is still expected to be larger than use.

Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.39, up 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.38 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.51, down 2 1/2 cents

May 15 Corn closed at $3.59 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents

Soybeans

September 12, 2014

Soybean futures rallied 2 1/2 to 4 3/4 cents today after double digit losses on Thursday. The September contract had some fireworks at expiration, closing 29 1/2 higher at $10.91. Prices saw modest support from frost in portions of the upper Midwest, along with a rally in soy oil. The USDA projection for a 3.913 bbu crop and ending stocks of 475 million bushels continued to overhang the market.

Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $10.91, up 29 1/2 cents,

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.85 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.92 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.98 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $408.00, down $18.70,

Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at $32.16, up $0.72

Wheat

September 12, 2014

Wheat futures settled 4 3/4 to 7 1/2 cents lower in Chicago. KC was hit much harder, down 10 1/2 to 23 1/2 cents. Minneapolis was down 13 3/4 to 30 3/4 with the September contract melting down at expiration. The USDA world ending stocks estimates for 2013/14 and 2014/15 were both increased yesterday, adding 2.79 MMT and 3.42 MMT respectively. That put some pressure on EU prices as well as on the US. 

Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.98 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.72 1/4, down 23 1/2 cents,

Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.68 1/4, down 30 3/4 cents

Cattle

September 12, 2014

Cattle futures ended the week with losses of anywhere from 12 cents to $1.10. Feeders were 20 lower to 142 higher, with September supported by a 76 cent jump in the underlying CME Feeder Cattle Index. Cash cattle trade was down $2-3 from last week’s big jump, with volume at $160-162 in the south and $248-250 in the north. Wholesale beef prices were lower this afternoon, and mixed for the full week. Today, USDA showed Choice boxes down $1.61 and Select down $1.81. The choice/select spread has widened out to $15.39.  Weekly cattle slaughter is estimated at 592,000 head, up from the Labor Day shortened 518,000 head but down 23,000 head from the same week in 2013.

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $156.275, down $1.100,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $159.250, down $0.450,

Feb 15 Cattle closed at $159.575, down $0.125,

Sep 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $229.475, up $1.425

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $225.925, up $0.325

Nov 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $223.925, unch,

Lean Hogs

September 12, 2014

Hog futures settled 5 to 90 cents lower, with February the lone exception with a 5 cent gain on spread trading.  The CME Index was up another $1.18 at $100.20, but futures had built a substantial premium to cash and were adjusting a little ahead of the weekend. The pork carcass cutout average price was 96 cents lower in the afternoon report, with ribs, loins and hams all lower.  Carcass based cash hog prices in the WCB were 42 cents higher. The IA/MN prices were 24 cents higher. The Eastern Corn Belt was quoted 16 cents higher in the afternoon report.  Estimated FI hog slaughter for the week is 2.053 million head, 118,000 below year ago for the same week.

Oct 14 Hogs closed at $105.700, down $0.675,

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $96.300, down $0.900

Feb 15 Hogs closed at $93.550, up $0.050

Cotton

September 12, 2014

Cotton futures were mixed today, with October and December lower but the 2015 contracts in the black by as much as 47 points. The market continues to react to the smaller USDA production estimate yesterday. That 16.54 million bale figure was 960,000 bales below the figure from the August report.  USDA also dropped ending stocks to 5.20 MB. ICE Certified stocks are down to 53,056 bales as we approach the October contract delivery period.  The Cotlook A Index was up 60 points this morning at 75.85.

Oct 14 Cotton closed at 70.61, down 18 points,

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 68, down 9 points

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 67.43, up 47 points


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