AgriCharts Market Commentary

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March 27, 2015

Corn futures continued their gradual decline with losses of a quarter cent. This market needs a shot of news to go anywhere. The Hogs and Pigs report, issued after the close, should be mildly supportive if anything. Most numbers were above trade expectations (see hog section below). More hogs mean more feed use. Keep in mind, USDA already has estimated feed/residual use in the current crop year at 5.25 billion bushels, up from 5.036 in 2013/14 in the face of prices averaging $3.70 this year, versus $4.46 last marketing year. The main market movers will be the Grain Stocks and Planting reports on Tuesday. SAFRAS put the Brazilian corn crop at 75.9 MMT vs. 77.2 MMT last year.

May 15 Corn is at $3.91, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 15 Corn is at $3.99, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 15 Corn is at $4.06 1/2, down 1/4 cent

Dec 15 Corn is at $4.14 3/4, unch


March 27, 2015

Soybean futures closed down 6-7 cents today, as products continued to fall. On the week, however, the soybean loss is under 4 cents.  May meal was down another $1, bringing its weekly loss to $1.60, and oil is off 57 cents, though the weekly loss is a modest 1 cent. The CFTC report tonight still shows a net short position of almost 39,000 on the part of managed money after they reduced it by 844 contracts for the week. Argentine soybean harvest is 4% completed.

May 15 Soybeans are at $9.67 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

Jul 15 Soybeans are at $9.72 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Aug 15 Soybeans are at $9.71 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 15 Soybeans are at $9.56 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

May 15 Soybean Meal is at $321.40, down $1.00,

May 15 Soybean Oil is at $30.60, down $0.57


March 27, 2015

Wheat futures reversed course with solid gains of 8-12 cents on Friday which erased a portion of the nasty mid-week break. Wheat suffered double-digit losses this week despite the rally: Chicago down almost 23 cents, Kansas City, more than 16 cents and Minneapolis, 14 cents. Managed money is still betting against wheat, by almost 66,000 contracts, although they trimmed that by 1,584 contracts in the CFTC reporting week ending March 24.

May 15 CBOT Wheat is at $5.07 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

May 15 KCBT Wheat is at $5.53, up 10 cents,

May 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.75, up 11 3/4 cents


March 27, 2015

Both live cattle and feeder futures rallied on Friday, with live cattle settling 65-73 cents higher and feeders, approaching $2.  The CME feeder cattle index dropped 92 cents to $216.71. Boxed beef was up 13 cents for Choice and down 25 cents for Select, averaging $250.80 and $246.71 respectively. This widened the spread to $4.09. Estimated weekly slaughter including Saturday, is pegged at 531,000 head. That’s up from 518,000 last week but 588,000 last year. Managed money added a hefty 12,000 contracts to their more than 64,000 long position and added to their long feeder position as well. Live cattle gained better than $4.27 and feeders, more than $2.72 this week.

Apr 15 Cattle are at $162.400, up $0.725,

Jun 15 Cattle are at $152.650, up $0.650,

Aug 15 Cattle are at $149.750, up $0.700,

Apr 15 Feeder Cattle are at $218.775, up $1.550

May 15 Feeder Cattle are at $217.700, up $1.925

Aug 15 Feeder Cattle are at $218.900, up $1.700

Lean Hogs

March 27, 2015

Just ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report, lean hog futures closed with gains in April and May but a 22.5 cent loss in June. This week, slaughter came in at 2.27 million, including Saturday, up from 2.237 last week and 2.031 last year. The trade estimates for the USDA Hogs and Pigs report on Friday afternoon called for a 6.8% year over year jump in the US hog herd and USDA reported a 7% gain. The breeding herd was the surprise: Analysts expected 103.6% of year ago but it came in a more modest 2.2%. Market hogs, at 107.7%, was half a percent larger than the average estimate of 107.2% of last year. Keep in mind last year’s numbers were depressed due to PEDv, which killed millions of pigs. That makes the % gains look large. The Dec-Feb pigs/litter were record high, but just slightly above 2013. The   CME lean hog index dropped 50 cents to $60.81.

Apr 15 Hogs are at $61.275, up $0.300,

May 15 Hogs are at $68.125, up $0.100

Jun 15 Hogs are at $74.925, down $0.225


March 27, 2015

Old-crop cotton futures bounced higher today with a slightly lower dollar promising this export-reliant crop a slightly more competitive pricing for global buyers. Certified stocks for March 26 were reported at 9,771 bales, with 644 new certs.  The Cotlook A Index is down n0.70 at 69.95. Attention is turning acreage and weather prospects for the 2015 crop.  A Dow Jones survey put the average trade estimate for cotton acreage at 9.44 million, with a range of 9.0-9.6 million. The USDA report will be on Tuesday at 11 am CDT.  

May 15 Cotton is at 63.55, up 47 points,

Jul 15 Cotton is at 63.87, up 37 points

Oct 15 Cotton is at 64.39, up 40 points

Dec 15 Cotton is at 64.68, up 35 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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