AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

September 04, 2015

Corn futures finished Friday up 1 1/2 to 1 3/4 cents.  Sept corn was down 14 cents (-4%) for the week.  Slow export sales and a firm US Dollar were not a bullish combination. Managed money accounts increased their net long position by 3,448 contracts according to the weekly Commitment of Traders report. Their position as of September 1 was 76,985 contracts net long. Ethanol exports totaled 77.2 million gallons in July, up 28% from June. Canada accounted for 30% of the monthly US ethanol exports. Monthly DDG exports were a record high, at 1.367 MMT. China imported 68% of July US DDGs. Average ethanol prices were steady in SD ($1.39), down 3 cents in Nebraska ($1.37), down 2 cents in Iowa ($1.37), but 3 cents higher in Illinois ($1.46).

Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.49 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.63, up 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.74 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents

May 16 Corn closed at $3.81 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

September 04, 2015

Soybean futures finished the day down 2 to 4 cents and Sept beans lost 16 cents on the week. Nov beans have lost about 17% from the July 14 high. Front month soy meal and soy oil were down 2.4% and 5% respectively on the week. The CFTC Disaggregated Report tonight showed managed money accounts switched from a net long position to a net short position of 17,302 contracts, increasing the net short position by 18,077 contracts in the week ending September 1. New crop export sales were solid in the weekly report. With US harvest beginning and a weaker basis, more of the sales are coming to the US vs. South America. The NWS forecasts less than .25 inches of precipitation for a large part of the soybean growing region through the weekend.

Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.77 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.66 1/2, down 3 cents,

Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.69 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.71, down 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $313.90, down $2.60,

Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at $26.44, down $0.32

Wheat

September 04, 2015

Wheat futures finished the day up a penny to 3 cents in CHI and MPLS, and up 6 to 7 cents in KC. For the week, front month SRW contracts lost nearly 20 cents (-4.2%), HRW was down 9 cents, while Sept HRS slipped only 4 cents. Sept15 CHI and KC wheat posted new lows at $4.55 1/2 and $4.40 1/4 respectively. CHI wheat managed money accounts increased their net short position as of Tuesday according to the CFTC. Managed money accounts held a net short position of 27,003 contracts as of 9/1. KC accounts increased their net short position as well, this time by 1,385 contracts to a position of 8,395 contracts net short as of Tuesday. Gulf bids CIF SRW eroded a nickel for Jan – Feb shipments in the midday report while the nearby was steady. As a reminder, the markets are closed on Monday, September 7, in observation of Labor Day.

Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.57 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.48 1/2, up 7 cents,

Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.86 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents

Cattle

September 04, 2015

Live cattle futures were down around a buck on Friday. October cattle lost $3.50 for the week, closing at $140.475 on Friday afternoon. Feeders were down triple digits on the session. Sept feeders fell $1.05 on the week, finishing at $201.35. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/3 was up 11 cents to $207.82. The ERS released monthly Livestock and Meat International Trade Data showing 199.745 million pounds were exported from the US in July.  That is down 6.6% from June, and off 13% from July 2014 exports. US beef imports totaled 288.081 million pounds, up 9.6% from July 2014, but down 15.2% from June. Cash cattle trade this week saw moderate demand, with live sales from $140-$143 and dressed sales of $222 on Friday. Boxed beef was lower on Friday with choice boxes down 74 cents to $240.07 and select boxes down a nickel to $228.39. From Friday to Friday, choice boxes fell $3.40 and select prices fell $4.68. Meat production increased to 463.9 million pounds this week, the second largest weekly production this year. WTD FI slaughter with Saturday estimates was 556,000 head, up 11,000 head from a week ago.

Oct 15 Cattle closed at $140.525, down $1.075,

Dec 15 Cattle closed at $142.875, down $1.000,

Feb 16 Cattle closed at $142.775, down $0.950,

Sep 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $201.150, down $1.400

Oct 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $195.625, down $1.700

Nov 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $192.925, down $1.525

Lean Hogs

September 04, 2015

Hog futures were down 30 to 65 cents on Friday and October hogs were +4% for the week, finishing at $69.15.  The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/2 was $76.39 off 49 cents. The pork carcass cutout gained 78 cents from Friday to Friday.  It was $85.31 in the afternoon report, up 6 cents from Thursday. Loins were up $2.54 to $82.40/cwt, while bellies fell $3.76 to an average price of $157.63/cwt. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreased their net long position by 801 contracts to 23,006 contracts net long as of 9/1. The ERS reported pork imports declined 10.6% from the past month, but were still the largest pork imports during any July since 2004. July pork exports were down about 4% from June. China took nearly 8% of the total US hog exports during July. Weighted average cash hog base prices were 69 cents lower in IA/MN, and down $1.22 in the WCB according to the USDA afternoon summary. Including Saturday projections, WTD slaughter is estimated at 2.171 million head, down nearly 2% from the previous week.

Oct 15 Hogs closed at $69.150, down $0.300,

Dec 15 Hogs closed at $63.375, down $0.650

Feb 16 Hogs closed at $67.625, down $0.425

Cotton

September 04, 2015

Cotton futures closed down 5 to 15 points today, and front month October was off 68 points for the week.  Dec15 cotton was unchanged on the day, after posting a 44 point trading range. The Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders report had cotton managed money accounts decreasing their net long position by 13,366 contracts as of September 1. Their position as of Tuesday was 39,947 contracts net long. China has sold only a small piece of their government stocks offerings this week. Chinese markets were closed on Thursday and Friday for a celebration commemorating the end of World War II. China was shown buying a little US cotton in the weekly export sales report.  US shipments were the largest in five weeks. There were 62,404 certified bales in delivery warehouses, with 0 decertified bales.

Oct 15 Cotton closed at 63.07, down 5 points,

Dec 15 Cotton closed at 62.62, down 14 points

Mar 16 Cotton closed at 62.4, down 10 points

May 16 Cotton closed at 62.66, down 9 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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