AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

July 24, 2014

Corn futures were unable to sustain early gains and closed 1/2 to 1 1/4 lower in “buy the rumor, sell the fact” action following a bullish weekly export sales report. USDA this morning reported that sales for the week totaled 1.4349 MMT, but old crop sales were disappointing @ 291,500 MT. The NWS 8-14 day forecast continues the much below normal temps for the Corn Belt through at least August 7.  That is great for pollination, but if this keeps up you are going to need a lot of propane or NG this fall.

Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.61 1/2, down 1 cent,

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.69 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents

May 15 Corn closed at $3.89 1/2, down 3/4 cent

Soybeans

July 24, 2014

Soybean futures settled 6 to 9 3/4 higher, with September the strongest. Meal futures were up another $3.80/ton to support the rally, but soy oil was only up a few ticks. Trade estimates for the USDA weekly Export Sales report were in the 1.2 to 1.6 MMT range. USDA reported much larger net export sales last week for old crop were 226,700 MT, and the new crop total was a whopping 2.451 MMT, with 1.2835 MMT slated for delivery to China.  The new crop price finally got cheap enough for China to step in and buy big. Old crop FOB basis was up sharply earlier in the week, reflecting a need to get some beans past the crush plants to the port. South American producer selling rose sharply on the rally yesterday and this morning.

Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.07 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.11 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents,

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.84 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.91 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $395.30, up $3.80,

Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at $36.24, up $0.04

Wheat

July 24, 2014

Wheat futures gains evaporated, similar to what happened in corn. The three markets closed 2 to 5 cents lower. The Spring Wheat Tour projected average yield of 48.6 bpa, an all time record. The 5 year average for the group is 44.7 bpa. They projected durum yield at 36.6 bpa. This morning USDA reported that net weekly sales through July 17 totaled 443,200 MT.  The largest buyer s were Japan and Nigeria. The total was comfortably within the range of estimates, i.e. no bullish surpise. Japan bought 95,600 MT from all sources in the weekly MOA tender. Australia is expecting current dry weather in the eastern part of the country to last another 60-90 days, affecting wheat and other crops.   

Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.28 3/4, down 2 cents,

Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.20 1/2, down 3 cents,

Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.19 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

Cattle

July 24, 2014

Cattle futures settled 5 to 75 cents higher, extending their market into life of contract and all time highs. Feeder futures were surprisingly unable to follow, settling 55 lower to 67 higher. With the USDA Cattle on Feed report tomorrow, bouts of pre-report profit taking is inevitable. Weekly US beef export sales reported this morning were 10,800 MT. That is larger than last week despite higher prices.  Wholesale beef prices were SHARPLY higher , with Choice boxes up $2.97 at $255.56 and Select up $4.13 at $252.84.  Week to date slaughter of 458,000 head is off 1,000 from last week, but down 5.5% from last year. The Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday, with the trade average guess (Bloomberg) for July 1 On Feed at 98.11% of year ago. The CME Feeder index was $2.34 higher at $212.98. Cash cattle were SHARPLY higher, with cash trades at $162 up $6 or more from last week. Dressed sales have been reported at $259-262.00. 

Aug 14 Cattle closed at $156.550, up $0.500,

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $158.050, up $0.050,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $157.775, up $0.050,

Aug 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $217.325, up $0.075

Sep 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $218.050, down $0.350

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $217.625, down $0.550

Lean Hogs

July 24, 2014

Lean hogs posted triple digit loses today, down $.90 to $2.87. December futures touched limit down. The average pork carcass cutout value was $1.29 lower at $131.31 this afternoon, with continued pressure on the belly primal ever since the Cold Storage report revealed unusually large June 30 inventories.  Weekly pork export sales through July 17 were 4,300, up 26 % from the previous week, but well below the 4-week moving average.  The CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.53 at $132.04.  Estimated week to date hog slaughter from USDA is 1.558 million head vs. 1.596 million a year ago. Cash hog prices were mixed today. The IA/MN area carcass base prices were up $1.18,

Aug 14 Hogs closed at $123.200, down $1.375,

Oct 14 Hogs closed at $107.900, down $2.550

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $98.625, down $2.875

Cotton

July 24, 2014

Cotton futures closed 138 to 237 lower today. Volume jumped with the new selling (technically bearish). Estimated volume was 28,400 contracts vs. 8,912 yesterday. The Cotlook A Index was UNCH at 83.15.  This morning, USDA reported net weekly export sales of US cotton for last week totaled 373,200 RB, including 3,700 RB of upland.  2013/14 sales of Upland cotton were actually posted as a net reduction of 1,900 RB for this week due to cancellations and rollovers. The USDA marketing year for cotton ends July 31. Any unshipped sales at that point will be applied to 2014/15 outstanding sales. This Export Sales report was through July 17.  Cert stocks dropped to 182,731 bales, the smallest since February.

Oct 14 Cotton closed at 66.4, down 237 points,

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 66.05, down 203 points

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 66.98, down 175 points


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