AgriCharts Market Commentary

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May 22, 2015

Corn futures settled mostly 4 to 5 cents lower on the day, and July futures lost 5.5 cents on the week.  Grains suffered some fallout from renewed strength in the US Dollar Index, with the trade unwilling to bet against favorable weather in much of the Corn Belt; especially over the holiday weekend. Ideas about low quality wheat theoretically coming into the livestock feed supply add some pressure with the eventual fallout on feed demand from bird flu still a looming question.  The weekly COT report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts adding about 15.6% to their net short position in corn futures and options for the week. 

Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.60, down 5 cents,

Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.66 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.77 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents

Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.88 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents


May 22, 2015

Soybean futures were sharply lower on the day, however July bean meal was able to post a slight gain on the day.  For the week July soybeans lost 29 cents (or nearly 3.15%), and meal gained 90 cents (0.3%).  Bean oil export commitments are well behind normal for this date and the July contract lost 61 cents on the day and 4.52% on the week.  Private exporters reported to the USDA this morning that Thailand booked 109,400 MT of soybean meal for delivery during 2015/16CFTC showed in its weekly report that the managed money accounts had a new record net-short position in disaggregated futures and options for soybeans, coming in 39,280 contracts more short than a week earlier at -90,271 contracts. 

Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.24 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents,

Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.16 1/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $9.07 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents,

Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.07, down 11 1/2 cents,

Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $304.20, up $0.10,

Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at $31.64, down $0.61


May 22, 2015

Wheat futures were 3 to 11 cents lower on the day, but were able to hold onto gains of 4 to 7 cents on the week.  The US Dollar Index jumped up nearly another 900 points today on a lower Euro, adding to the gains of comparable size from two other days this week.  Private exporters reported to the USDA that Taiwan purchased a total of 101,950 MT of US wheat for new crop delivery.  The majority of the purchase was HRS, but about 30% was HRW and 10% was SWW.  Dow Jones says Chinese wheat imports for April were down 35% yr/yr, and YTD 2015 imports are off 73% yr/yr.  The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts knocking sizable chunks off of their respective net short positions in both CBT and KC wheat as of the Tuesday close.

Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.23, down 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.57, down 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80, down 9 1/4 cents


May 22, 2015

Live cattle futures were mixed on the session, with losses of 2 to 25 cents in the front three contracts, and gains of 27 to 40 cents after the October contract.  Feeders posted triple digit gains on the day.  The COF report came out at 11AM CDT today showing 0.81% more cattle on feed than a year ago as of April 1.  Placements were 95.38% of year ago, and Marketings came in at 92.18% of a year ago.  The USDA Cold Storage report showed beef supplies as of April 30 were 118.5% of year ago, but down about 1% from the previous month.  Overall the reports were neutral/friendly.  Cash cattle trade perked up with the market ranging from $158 to $161 nationally, and dressed sales reported from $250 to $253. Wholesale beef prices were down again today with Choice boxes averaging $1.97 lower and Select boxes off $1.70. They had set new all time highs earlier in the week.

Jun 15 Cattle closed at $152.125, down $0.250,

Aug 15 Cattle closed at $150.700, down $0.200,

Oct 15 Cattle closed at $152.600, down $0.025,

Sep 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $218.000, up $1.175

Oct 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $217.000, up $1.100

Nov 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $216.300, up $1.175

Lean Hogs

May 22, 2015

Lean hog futures were mostly 5 to 35 cents lower on the day.  The Cold Storage report released at 11AM CDT showed frozen pork stocks on April 30 up 19.82% from a year earlier, and up 4.04% from the previous month.  These were close to expected. The CME Lean Hog Index crept up another 15 cents to $83.20.  Pork carcass cutout values were down $1.47/cwt today.  Loin and Ham primal cuts were pulling on the average more than the other cuts.  Cash hog base prices were reported 68 cents lower in the IA/MN area, and they were off 97 cents in the WCB. Estimated week to date slaughter is 2.147 million head including projections for Saturday.  That is 19K head larger than last week and 183K head more than the same period last year.

Jun 15 Hogs closed at $83.725, down $0.050,

Jul 15 Hogs closed at $83.725, down $0.125

Aug 15 Hogs closed at $83.725, down $0.350


May 22, 2015

Cotton futures were down mostly 10 to 50 points on the day.  July cotton lost 3.54 cents on the week, or nearly 5.6%.  Weakness in the Euro supported the US Dollar Index today, which added nearly another 900 points on the session.  Accumulated cotton exports are at 82% of the full year forecast,  a couple points ahead of the 5yr avg for this date.  Total commitments are 105% of the current USDA projection, also a couple points ahead of normal. USDA put the AWP at 52.00, resulting in an LDP of 0.00 for the week ending May 28.  USDA also opened up import quota #15. The quota will be established on May 28, 2015, allowing importation of 14,667,427 kilograms (67,367 bales) of upland cotton into the US.  Weekly COT data from the CFTC showed managed money accounts are still net long cotton futures and options, but they cut their net position by about 13.8% from the previous Tuesday. 

Jul 15 Cotton closed at 63.3, down 43 points,

Oct 15 Cotton closed at 65.22, down 50 points

Dec 15 Cotton closed at 64.38, down 32 points

Mar 16 Cotton closed at 64.63, down 10 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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